Highlights from a recent client event with veteran political strategists Karl Rove and James Carville

Against the backdrop of a highly unpredictable election cycle, the panel discussion centered on recent pivotal events such as the June and September presidential debates, considered to be two of the most consequential debates in U.S. history, and two assassination attempts targeting former president Donald Trump.

Both Rove and Carville provided guests with expert commentary and insights into the race and what to expect after a new president is elected. Here are a few highlights:

Historical patterns suggest that one candidate will outperform expectations, and Carville predicted that the seven swing states are more likely to break 5-2 for one candidate than a 4-3 split. Pennsylvania remains a key battleground state, where neither candidate has a clear path to victory without securing its 19 electoral votes. Several other swing states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, are also closely contested with polling currently within the margin of error.

Both Rove and Carville believe the 2024 US Presidential election race is simply “too-close-to-call” with both national and key swing state polls well within the margin of error.

They both predicted a divided government as the most likely legislative outcome for either candidate with the Senate likely leaning Republican and the House leaning Democrat. The two strategists expressed that Trump and Harris face doubts regarding their foreign policy expertise, while Harris is more likely to be seen as the "change candidate," offering new leadership in contrast to Trump's familiar style.