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Our economists explore the forces and trends impacting the US economy and provide insights on key economic indicators.

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DateTitleLink
03/15/2024Agron Nicaj's quarterly outlook View
03/01/2024The Fed is right to be cautiousView
02/23/2024Look to the middle classView
02/05/2024Don’t expect a re-acceleration of labor demandView
01/17/2024Five Key Questions for 2024View
01/05/2024Labor demand may be weaker than it seemsView
12/08/2023Labor shortages are likely distorting signalsView
12/05/2023Importing goods deflationView
11/03/2023October’s jobs report supports continued Fed pauseView
10/06/2023Making sense of September’s job growthView
09/29/2023Consumers didn’t surprise in AugustView
09/14/2023August rebound and resurging energy pricesView
9/01/2023Easing labor market and slow burning inflationView
8/29/2023A hawkish tone, but for good reasonView
08/11/2023Disinflation momentum is buildingView
08/04/2023More jobs and more productivityView
07/28/2023A soft landing requires strong assumptionsView
07/13/2023Price disturbances vs inflationView
07/07/2023The Fed is out of excusesView
06/26/2023Predicting consumer behavior - Japanese VersionView
06/20/2023Predicting consumer behaviorView
06/02/2023Little give in the labor marketView
05/19/2023A normalizing economyView
05/05/2023Strong jobs growth but weak productivityView
04/28/2023Growth is unlikely to lastView
04/24/2023Inflation and bank creditView
04/07/2023The labor market for goods industries is starting to coolView
03/31/2023Uncertainty ahead for inflation and growthView
03/24/2023Macro vs financial stabilityView
03/10/2023The labor market remains defiantView
03/06/2023Eyes are back on goods inflation and manufacturing - Japanese Version View
03/03/2023Eyes are back on goods inflation and manufacturingView
02/17/2023Focus on the signal and not the noiseView
02/06/2023Strong demand or the calm before the storm? - Japanese VersionView
02/03/2023Strong demand or the calm before the storm?View
01/31/2023Wage growth has likely peaked, but risks remain View
01/27/2023The economy is showing signs of weaknessView
01/06/2023There is still a demand problem in the USView
12/15/2022Some mixed signals on employment growthView
12/07/2022Markets are overly optimistic about inflation - Japanese Version View
12/02/2022The labor market is still too strongView
11/25/2022Markets are overly optimistic about inflationView
11/04/2022The labor market is not responding to the FedView
10/31/2022More questions than answers for the Fed - JapaneseView
10/28/2022More questions than answers for the FedView
10/07/2022The third quarter ends with a strong labor marketView
09/06/2022Labor costs pose the biggest threat to prices and profit marginsView
09/02/2022The summer ends with solid job growthView