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In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.

If Japanese investors sold a remarkable amount of U.S. Treasuries in September, why is cross-currency basis snapping tighter only now?

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the September USTIC and October JSDA, along with MoF investing flows data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

U.S. Fixed Income – Time to dollar-cost-average in?

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses the recent price action around the CPI and PPI readings and puts that into context relative to the latest thinking on the Fed. George says we should take the Fed at face value until they decide to signal or officially offer forward guidance on policy objectives. That means that it’s still premature to suggest they are about to pause, and with USTs still sub where the Fed may still end up pushing up rates, George suggests that buying dips and potentially dollar-cost-averaging into fixed income is still the prudent course of action. Meanwhile, George does not think the bond market will take out all of the 2023 rate hikes – at least not between now and year-end – until the Fed gives more forward guidance.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Winter prepayment, issuance outlook, and the search for convexity

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz discusses the October remittance data and outlines our views with respect to winter seasonal turnover prepayment, 2023 issuance, and investors’ search for convexity in the agency MBS. He also discusses the use of machine learning to identify unique convexity profiles, and how investors may leverage machine learning to create excess risk adjusted returns in the agency MBS market.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Why did Japan’s monetary base expand only slightly despite record currency intervention and continued JGB purchases by the Bank of Japan?

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the impact of the MoF’s currency intervention and BoJ monetary operations on the flow of money, as well as what to watch with regards to monetary and fiscal policy. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Life insurance company investment plans following the BoJ’s decision to continue easy monetary policy

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects H2 FY22 Japanese life insurance company investment plans, discusses the Samurai bond market, and summarizes high points from the BoJ’s October policy meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
 

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Bearish exhaustion driving risk markets too far?

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses how the developments in the bond markets have been more logical lately, especially around key macro events. Whereas risk assets, like the performance of equities, have been more perplexing. George attributes the multiple bounces higher for stocks over the last month as a function of “bearish exhaustion” as investors try to determine if a solid bottom has been put in for 2022. George believes that broader markets are perhaps confusing a potential Fed pause as a pivot, and even then it’s still too early for the Fed to be signaling a transition in policy given how high inflation remains.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Foreigners challenge BoJ yield curve control once again but Japanese investors have the BoJ’s back

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido updates us on the cross asset flows during the month of September and also previews the October BoJ policy meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

The Second Golden Age of Mortgage Backed Securities

In this episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz discusses the October remittance data and outlines our thesis of the ‘Second Golden Age of Mortgage Backed Securities.’ He reviews how the evolution of the coupon stack, borrower and loan characteristic diversity, and the normalization of interest rates converge to bring about the dawn of a second golden age for mortgages.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Structural changes in GBP, bond market stresses, and Japanese securities investing flows

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews cross-border securities flows during the volatile price action that occurred during the months of August and September, as well as additional insights from the quarterly Tankan survey. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

CPI Shocktober to drive markets to new local price lows?

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves marks to market what he believes was another head-fake move at the start of Q4 trading. The roundtrip price action that we have seen in the last week or so of trading in both bonds and stocks – which saw massive rallies unwind into this new trading week – reminds us that many investors are still enamored with the buy-the-dip approach versus selling-the-rips stance that we have been advocating for a while, which are more common trading strategies in bear markets. We go into what to expect from the FOMC minutes and the upcoming inflation reports.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Learn more

For more information,
contact us.

John Cooke
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
1-212-405-7353
John.Cooke@mufgsecurities.com

George Goncalves
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
1-212-405-6687
George.Goncalves@mufgsecurities.com

Takahiro Sekido
Chief Japan Strategist
Tokyo, Japan
1-81-3-6214-4150
Takahiro_Sekido@mufg.jp

Glenn Schultz
Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy
Chicago, IL
1-212-405-6521
Glenn.Schultz@mufgsecurities.com

The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.