In this weekly podcast series, John Herrmann, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, along with other subject matter experts within our business, discuss the forces, indicators, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and year ahead.
When will the FOMC “catch up” to the strength in the CPI inflation, retail sales, housing, and production data?
In today’s podcast, U.S. Rates Strategist John reviews the CPI report and previews the retail sales report. His models forecast a remarkable surge in retail spending over the coming months of March, April, May and into June. In turn, John’s GDP growth rate forecast remains the highest of all professional forecasters in the Bloomberg survey, at +9.03% yoy in 2021, and his growth forecast remains near 260 bps stronger than the FOMC’s projection.
Is this the end of the refinance wave?
In this episode, Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, discusses whether or not the March remit data is a sign of the end of the refinance wave. He also discusses the implications of the CFPB’s extension on borrower forbearance and how this will impact home prices.
Cross-border flows in the beginning of a new fiscal year
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses Yen monetary base, possible triggers for the Yen rates market, cross-border security investment flows in February and March, and the JPY basis response. He also shares his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen basis, and Yen rate.
Does a robust recovery in the labor market suggest the Fed is already behind the curve?
In the latest podcast, U.S. Rates Strategist John Herrmann reviews the most recent monthly employment report, both in terms of the remarkably strong and broad-based growth in nonfarm payrolls, alongside an extremely rapid descent in the number of U3 unemployed individuals.
BoJ’s Tankan survey, JGB buying plan, and MoF’s fiscal fund projections for volatile JPY moves in FY21: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses Japan’s economy and Japanese corporate investing and export assumption exchange rates based on the Tankan survey, as well as the BoJ’s JGB buying plans and the MoF’s stance toward fund supply and demand and TDB issuances in April. He also shares his outlooks for Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
Has the U.S. economy just entered a twelve-week window of explosive growth?
In this episode, U.S. Rates Strategist John Herrmann peers into the machinations of the March employment report and his models find numerous indications of a rapid acceleration in employment growth, not just for the month of March, but also for the months of April through October 2021. The household survey—as a mirror image to employment dynamics—may exhibit a very rapid and significant decline in the U3 unemployment rate over the coming ten-months, towards a 2021 year-end rate of 3.91% John discusses the implications of the data for a 2s-30s Treasury yield curve steepener and a more nuanced 5s-30s Treasury yield curve flattener investment stances.
“Further effective and sustainable monetary easing” and you
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the key changes to monetary policy based on the BoJ’s assessment of monetary easing, as well as potential triggers for Yen rate cross-currency basis. He also shares his outlooks for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
Following Chair Powell’s forward guidance may leave you holding the bag on big-time bond valuation losses?
Chair Powell has pledged that monetary policy is no longer to be conducted upon a forward looking basis – a reaction function that explicitly acknowledges the long and variable lead times between policy changes and economic activity. Rather, Chair Powell doubled down upon his claim that the Fed’s policy reaction function will be based upon realized outcomes to economic improvement over the current cycle. In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist John Herrmann argues to continue to take the opposite side of Chair Powell’s remarkably complacent view.
BoJ policy assessment is likely more evolution than revolution
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido offers his outlook for the BoJ’s March board meeting and reviews JPY flow of funds and cross-border securities investing. He also shares his outlooks for Dollar/Yen, Yen basis, and Yen rate.
Fence sitters and buyouts in low delinquency pools: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast Fence sitters and buyouts in low delinquency pools: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
In today’s podcast, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Strategy and Prepayment Modeling, Glenn Schultz, touches on the ideas of the “fence sitter” and how this impacts mortgage prepayment rates, why we are seeing buyouts in low delinquency pools, and the increase in 120+ past due stratifications.
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Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
U.S. Rates Strategist
New York, NY
Chief Japan Strategist