Global Markets Podcasts

With three weeks until Election Day on November 3, millions of Americans are already voting – in person and by mail. Polls show a sustained and recently growing lead by former Vice President Biden, but the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on how votes will be cast and counted remains unclear. A win by President Trump cannot be ruled out.

In this episode, Jordan Heiber, Deputy Representative in MUFG’s Washington DC Office, looks at the state of the race, the risk that we may not know the outcome on election night, and the policies and priorities that investors should expect from Washington in 2021.

The prospect of economic growth in the UK is darkening, with figures showing a less than impressive level of growth for August. In this episode, Lee Hardman, currency analyst, outlines the rocky road ahead for the pound.

The markets are currently pricing in an optimistic scenario for Brexit negotiations ahead of the EU leaders' summit on Thursday, but will this positive momentum be dampened by the surge of COVID-19 cases in the UK?

Listen now for Lee’s forecasts for GBP and USD as Biden continues to take the lead in the election polls.

With starkly different policies on energy and environmental issues, the outcome of the upcoming US election will have a momentous impact on markets.

With less than a month to go, Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, offers insights into why either a Trump or Biden administration will mean those trading oil, both now and post-election, will require new ways to assess, quantify, and hedge risk. Listen to Ehsan’s analysis.

Total U.S. nonfarm payrolls gained only +661.0K mom in September, weaker than John Herrmann's forecast and the consensus estimate. In contrast, private nonfarm payrolls gained +877.0K mom, stronger than his forecast and the consensus estimate. As John previewed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did, in fact, under-count total education staffing, especially at K-12 public schools.

The especially “poor” September Repose/Collection Rate (just 70.4%) points to risk of a +225.0K to +325.0K upward revision to the September total nonfarm payroll outcome over the coming two monthly reports. The October monthly report likely may see a large gain in education payrolls as well. Lastly, the September report saw yet another big move down in the unemployment rate – spot on to John’s forecast of 7.9%. This decline partially reflects some 772.8K individuals who incorrectly reported themselves as “employed, but absent from work (other reasons)” – which suggests that the U3 rate for the month of September really may be as high as 8.3%. How is an investor to interpret these mixed messages?!

In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, reviews a mixed September employment report, including his forecasts for non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate versus the actual results. He also puts this in perspective versus the 38% rebound in growth he's expecting to occur in the 3rd quarter and discusses the steepening of the 2s-30s Treasury yield curve towards 191.1 bps target over the coming eighteen months.

MUFG’s Glenn Schultz discusses MUFG’s proprietary machine learning prepayment model and walks listeners through the relevant issues that mortgage investors should be paying attention to while surveying the prepayment landscape.

In this episode, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Strategy and Prepayment Modeling, Glenn Schultz, breaks down the impact of technology, the new adverse delivery fee, hardship forbearance, and delinquency buyout extension on prepayment rates going forward. He also dives into MUFG’s rate forecast and what this means for the 30-year mortgage rate going into 2021.

U.S. politics is still front of mind following President Trump’s diagnosis of COVID-19 last week. This development sent shockwaves through the markets, and could have repercussions for the upcoming election.

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA, gives his analysis of the situation and considers whether Biden has an advantage going forwards.

Also this week, Derek looks at possible scenarios for the UK’s economic recovery based on past data from the 2008 financial crisis. Spoiler alert: it’s far from optimistic. Listen here.

Notwithstanding the reality that Oman faces one of the largest fiscal shortfalls amongst the entire emerging market space this year, there are encouraging signs that the country is over the worst.

One of the most closely examined emerging market countries, Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, weighs in on Oman’s outlook as it navigates the oil-virus shocks and highlights key areas to monitor into 2021.

MUFG's John Herrmann is expecting yet another better than consensus gain in headline payrolls in the month of September. He's also expecting a larger than expected fall in the unemployment rate...sound familiar?! Undercounting of education workers represent down-side risk to his forecast, although this would likely be caught in subsequent monthly revisions. Lastly, with the flurry of announcements about pending corporate layoffs, for how much longer can this good news last? John outlines the path forward.  

In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, previews the September employment report, including his forecasts for non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. He also discusses, more generally, why he's more optimistic on employment and growth than the consensus, the Fed, and other official forecasts.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s administration is only weeks old, but it is already clear the new administration will continue Abenomics and push for the structural reforms that were never enacted. The Tokyo markets underwent structural changes during the nearly eight years of Abenomics, and overseas investors have been making more JPY cross-currency arbitrage trades while Japanese companies and investors have been acquiring more overseas assets. What is in store for Tokyo markets under “Suganomics”? More locally, stock prices have dropped, and the JPY has strengthened recently as the coronavirus pandemic has flared up again in Europe. Speculation has been simmering in the market that Prime Minister Suga will dissolve the Lower House and hold a general election. What is in store for USDJPY, JPY rate, and USDJPY cross-currency basis?

In this episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, tests market reaction to the Bank of Japan’s exchange traded funds purchases during Abenomics and takes a look at USDJPY, JPY rates, and JPY basis as “Suganomics” enjoys its honeymoon period.

Tomorrow is the first live debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden and marks five weeks until the U.S. election. History indicates television debates don’t have an integral influence on election results, but Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA, gives his FX forecast for the week as he explains why if there was ever a year to buck this trend, this could be it.

With the markets pricing in the prospect for an unresolved election and a contested outcome, and not to mention the rocky road ahead for GBP as it grapples with ongoing UK-EU trade negotiations, the MUFG market research team share their trade ideas for what is set to be a volatile few months in the markets.