In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.
An introduction to our U.S. Macro Strategy platform
In this episode, we are pleased to introduce MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, George Goncalves. George briefly takes us through his strategy approach of the four pillars of a macro analysis, a process that he has fine-tuned and enhanced over his 20 years of being in the financial markets.
A reprieve in MBS prepayment speeds
In this episode, Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, talks about the reprieve we will see in prepayment speeds but indicates this is certainly not the end of the refinance wave. He also discusses his view on May prepayment speeds.
Tight cross-currency basis is a reminder of the interdependency between the Treasury and JGB markets
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects securities investing flows over Golden Week and discusses the March Balance of Payment and April International Transactions in Securities data. He also shares his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen basis, and Yen rate.
A reduction in BoJ JGB purchases proves no match to an expanding monetary base and fiscal spending
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects Japan’s April monetary base and fiscal balance, as well as discusses May fiscal fund flows. He also shows his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
Could a small step toward post-pandemic policy normalization and tweaks to the structure of U.S. money markets start to normalize cross-currency basis?
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews the Bank of Japan’s April policy meeting, discusses adjustments to the coordinated global central bank effort to supply U.S. Dollar funds, and takes listeners through relative value in cross-border security investments. He also shares his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
Japanese life insurance company investment strategies for fiscal year 2021
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses key points with Japanese lifers’ 1H FY21 investment strategies including the impact on individual USD, EUR, and JPY asset classes as well as discusses dynamics in the JPY Samurai bond market and key points for the near term. He also outlines his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
Prime Minister Suga’s first visit to U.S. suggests cross-border interdependency is increasingly key for Japanese markets
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the outlook for Japanese corporate foreign direct investment, February U.S. TIC data, and cross-border securities investing flows in the Tokyo markets so far in April. He also shares his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
When will the FOMC “catch up” to the strength in the CPI inflation, retail sales, housing, and production data?
In today’s podcast, U.S. Rates Strategist John reviews the CPI report and previews the retail sales report. His models forecast a remarkable surge in retail spending over the coming months of March, April, May and into June. In turn, John’s GDP growth rate forecast remains the highest of all professional forecasters in the Bloomberg survey, at +9.03% yoy in 2021, and his growth forecast remains near 260 bps stronger than the FOMC’s projection.
Is this the end of the refinance wave?
In this episode, Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, discusses whether or not the March remit data is a sign of the end of the refinance wave. He also discusses the implications of the CFPB’s extension on borrower forbearance and how this will impact home prices.
Cross-border flows in the beginning of a new fiscal year
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses Yen monetary base, possible triggers for the Yen rates market, cross-border security investment flows in February and March, and the JPY basis response. He also shares his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen basis, and Yen rate.
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For more information,
contact us.
John Cooke
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
1-212-405-7353
John.Cooke@mufgsecurities.com
George Goncalves
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
1-212-405-6687
George.Goncalves@mufgsecurities.com
The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.