In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.
A strong yen and tight swap spreads ahead of the Obon summer holidays: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
USDJPY has recovered to the 106 level so far in August. However, DXY shows that US dollar weakening trends remain intact. Globally, equity prices are firm and market sentiment is unlikely to drive JPY strengthening, but USDJPY could still fall because of seasonal cash repatriation factors. Japanese investors’, as well as Japanese companies’, flows for JGBs and foreign govies tend to be weak ahead of the Obon summer holidays.
In this episode, Takahiro Sekido, Chief Japan Strategist of Global Markets Research, MUFG Bank Tokyo discusses cross border flows, tight JPY swap and basis swap spreads, and updates on his view of the Yen, JPY rates, and JPY cross-currency basis.
Trouble on the horizon for the UK economy? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast
Last week’s Bank of England policy meeting was positive for the pound, decreasing downside risks as confirmation was given that negative interest rates won’t be introduced for now. While the BoE continued to display a relatively optimistic outlook for the UK economy, Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG considers whether this could be put at risk as the UK economy looks set to struggle in the coming months.
As announcements about job cuts linked to COVID-19 continue to grow, along with the heightened risk of a disruptive Brexit outcome, Lee expects further policy easing will be needed in the coming months to ensure stability. Elsewhere, strains are building in emerging markets but will they help to support the US dollar more broadly? Click below to listen now.
Examining BoJ asset purchases and supply of Dollar funds: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Major Japanese companies began announcing Q2 earnings results last week. Earnings of major companies reflect the uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic. Japanese companies need to secure USD funding with JPY basis swaps to maintain their global business portfolios amidst uncertain business conditions. Despite all this chaos global stock and credit markets remain calm as central banks in key economies continue to buy government bonds and credit assets and supply USD funds. Will this continue?
In this episode, Takahiro Sekido, Chief Japan Strategist of Global Markets Research, MUFG Bank Tokyo discusses the increase in fiscal receipts from MoF issuance in the context of BoJ asset purchase and USD fund-supply operation announcements. He also updates his view on the Yen, JPY rates and JPY cross-currency basis.
Uncertainty for USD and GBP: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast
Uncertainty looms for both USD and GBP as both countries reckon with unpredictable forces. Relentless selling saw the dollar have a terrible month in July, and now concerns that President Trump may call into question the legitimacy of votes in the U.S. election and risks of the Fed failing to pass another fiscal stimulus package are further undermining the currency.
Meanwhile the pound has seen surprising strength over the past month, but with a Bank of England meeting on Thursday, local lockdowns and COVID-19 second wave fears, can this trend continue? Lee Hardman, currency analyst, gives his forecast.
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Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
Chief Japan Strategist
Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy
The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.