In this weekly podcast series, John Herrmann, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, along with other subject matter experts within our business, discuss the forces, indicators, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and year ahead.
What happens when you take the “Abe” out of Abenomics?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
USDJPY dropped following the announcement of Prime Minister Abe’s resignation last Friday. Although the decline in USDJPY was limited compared to the scale of Nikkei Average drop, since higher US yields catalyzed Japanese investor buying of foreign bonds, thus supporting USDJPY downside. Political risk will only increase through mid-September. Not only USDJPY and JPY rates, but also the Nikkei Average will be prone to these risks, and Japanese investment flows are likely to stay active.
In this episode, Takahiro Sekido, Chief Japan Strategist of Global Markets Research, MUFG Bank Tokyo discusses the impact of Abe’s resignation on markets and cross-border flows as well as updates of his view on the Yen, Yen rates, and Dollar/Yen cross-currency basis.
Hurricane implications for global oil markets: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Oil prices are flirting at the top of their multi-month trading ranges, driven by supply apprehensions caused by Hurricane Laura. This extends an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season which, worryingly, still has a couple of months to run.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, discusses the impact of seasonal hurricanes and tropical storms on oil markets, and puts them into the current context of the already precarious COVID-19 developments on the demand-side of the oil equation.
The FOMC’s growth projections are far too pessimistic, will they shift at this week’s virtual symposium?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Euro facing turnaround as bullish momentum slows: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast
Can the U.S. economy rebound +28.7% in Q3, yet still require a massive jolt of stimulus over the coming 18 months?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
The US shale oil comeback – how soon and what magnitude? The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Crude oil prices north of US$40/b is enough to bring shut-in US shale oil production back online, but not enough to drill new wells and offset base declines.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, examines prospects for the shale oil industry and highlights the price level where the economics meaningfully works.
The summer lull in global oil markets: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
It’s not just the annual summer slowdown that is to blame for a drop in the level of trading activities in crude future contracts, which are currently the lowest they have been since 2014.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, speaks on this week’s podcast on some of the market movements we have seen over the last six weeks, and how the recent flattening in prices is clouding the future direction of the market.
Navigating the twists and turns of employment, growth, and the U.S. election: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Payroll gains in July were solid at +1.763mm, higher than consensus estimate (+1.500 million) but close to our forecast of +1.650mm. Similarly, GDP was better than consensus expectations of -34.8% but close to our -32.5% forecast. Moreover, we expect another better than consensus GDP print in the 3rd quarter and for the year-end U3 unemployment rate to be near 8.39%. If that's the case, why are we so worried about the outlook for employment and growth going forward?
In this episode, MUFG Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, reviews July employment and Q2 GDP reports and tells listeners what these mean for the labor market and growth going forward. He also offers his take on the upcoming U.S. election and gives listeners an update on his core strategic investment stance of a 2s-30s yield curve steepener.
The 2020 US Election Heats Up: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Please note this podcast was recorded prior to Joe Biden announcing Kamala Harris as his VP.
The 2020 election is less than 90 days away, and voting will begin in some states as early as next month. With the continued impact of the coronavirus, former VP Biden has maintained a lead over President Trump, but as the general election campaigning heats up, a number of upcoming events could impact the dynamic.
In this episode, Hana Rudolph, of MUFG’s Washington DC Representative Office, examines current dynamics of the 2020 election outlook: how Biden’s VP pick, the upcoming party conventions, and presidential debates could impact the race, and what investors should pay attention to in the months ahead.
A strong yen and tight swap spreads ahead of the Obon summer holidays: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
USDJPY has recovered to the 106 level so far in August. However, DXY shows that US dollar weakening trends remain intact. Globally, equity prices are firm and market sentiment is unlikely to drive JPY strengthening, but USDJPY could still fall because of seasonal cash repatriation factors. Japanese investors’, as well as Japanese companies’, flows for JGBs and foreign govies tend to be weak ahead of the Obon summer holidays.
In this episode, Takahiro Sekido, Chief Japan Strategist of Global Markets Research, MUFG Bank Tokyo discusses cross border flows, tight JPY swap and basis swap spreads, and updates on his view of the Yen, JPY rates, and JPY cross-currency basis.
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Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
U.S. Rates Strategist
New York, NY
Chief Japan Strategist