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In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.

Foreigners challenge BoJ yield curve control once again but Japanese investors have the BoJ’s back

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido updates us on the cross asset flows during the month of September and also previews the October BoJ policy meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

The Second Golden Age of Mortgage Backed Securities

In this episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz discusses the October remittance data and outlines our thesis of the ‘Second Golden Age of Mortgage Backed Securities.’ He reviews how the evolution of the coupon stack, borrower and loan characteristic diversity, and the normalization of interest rates converge to bring about the dawn of a second golden age for mortgages.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Structural changes in GBP, bond market stresses, and Japanese securities investing flows

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews cross-border securities flows during the volatile price action that occurred during the months of August and September, as well as additional insights from the quarterly Tankan survey. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

CPI Shocktober to drive markets to new local price lows?

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves marks to market what he believes was another head-fake move at the start of Q4 trading. The roundtrip price action that we have seen in the last week or so of trading in both bonds and stocks – which saw massive rallies unwind into this new trading week – reminds us that many investors are still enamored with the buy-the-dip approach versus selling-the-rips stance that we have been advocating for a while, which are more common trading strategies in bear markets. We go into what to expect from the FOMC minutes and the upcoming inflation reports.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Casualties of Tightening (The Historic Rise in Global Central Bank Policy Rates)

In today’s episode, Hailey Orr, MUFG Capital Markets Strategist, discusses her team’s most recent publication: Casualties of Tightening (The Historic Rise in Global Central Bank Policy Rates). Hailey speaks to the idea of “synchronicity”, where she takes us through the remarkable YTD sell-off of nearly every risk asset on the planet. She also goes over how the current global policy tightening cycle differs from past cycles and which areas in the market are bearing the brunt, and expectations for the Fed tightening cycle going forward.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Fed Pivot Dreams Strike Again

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides us with an update on how markets got back to dreaming of Fed pivots again after such a terrible performance in September. He also walks us through some of his main themes in the latest Macro2Markets Monthly called: A sea of doom (loops) as FCI tightens further. George remains skeptical of what could be another bear market rally in the making and attributes the recent price action to positioning and sentiment having gotten too bearish-leaning. That said, George does not believe there is an imminent Fed reversal and that the Fed needs financial conditions to tighten even further in order to clamp down on aggregate demand and contain inflation into the new year. It’s also interesting to hear how George defined the criteria for what he dubs the end of the bond bull run, but that said, it doesn’t mean the start of the bear market in bonds is ahead either.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

What do the September BoJ meeting and Tankan survey tell us about the outlook for Yen assets across markets?

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the September BoJ meeting, Tankan survey, and his outlook for Yen assets across markets for the month of October. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

September FOMC Preview: Hawkish mood continues even if the Fed meets market expectation

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on his latest views post the recent volatility in markets. George believes the gap between rate expectations and risk assets are closing. Post the hotter than expected CPI print, the Fed is not going to pivot any time soon as many initially were hoping. George provides his base case for the September FOMC with expectations of another 75bp hike higher in rates, the third in a row, along with higher dots, too. George expects Chair Powell to deliver a message that is consistent with his speech from Jackson Hole, which was hawkish.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Bank of Japan to leave ultra-loose monetary policy in place as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy aggressively

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the impact of Yen money supply/demand as well as inflationary pressures ahead of the BoJ’s meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Japanese investors rebuild foreign bond positions while the BoJ makes small tweaks to monetary policy

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido shares his take on recent cross border investment data and the implications of recent changes to BoJ current deposit accounts, and also discusses developments in the Tokyo repo market during July and August. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Learn more

For more information,
contact us.

John Cooke
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
1-212-405-7353
John.Cooke@mufgsecurities.com

George Goncalves
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
1-212-405-6687
George.Goncalves@mufgsecurities.com

Takahiro Sekido
Chief Japan Strategist
Tokyo, Japan
1-81-3-6214-4150
Takahiro_Sekido@mufg.jp

Glenn Schultz
Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy
Chicago, IL
1-212-405-6521
Glenn.Schultz@mufgsecurities.com

The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.