In this weekly podcast series, John Herrmann, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, along with other subject matter experts within our business, discuss the forces, indicators, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and year ahead.
Double dip recession woes for Europe: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast
The shocking acceleration of new COVID-19 cases in Europe are prompting countries such as Spain and Italy to introduce new measures such as curfews – but what does this mean for the economy?
In this episode, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA, explains why previous hopes for a ‘V’ shaped recovery are now being replaced with fears of a double dip recession and gives his market forecast ahead of the upcoming ECB meeting on Thursday.
Contextualising ESG in global oil markets: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations have been central in investor risk assessment in global oil markets for years. Over time, the focus has shifted between key themes including the environmental impact of oil production, health and safety standards, corporate integrity and climate change.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, contextualises ESG’s current state of affairs in global oil markets. He believes that the near-term focus remains resolutely on maintaining safety records and defining company strategies in reducing carbon footprints whilst the medium-term challenge is adapting to the broader energy transition. Listen to Ehsan’s analysis.
Next week’s GDP report to show a robust rebound in growth…but then what?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
MUFG's John Herrmann has revised his tracking estimate for 3Q-2020 real GDP growth to +35.5% q/q SAAR (previously, +39.7%). Although lower, the forecast is still higher than Bloomberg consensus of +32%. If John's forecasts prove accurate, they suggest that the level of real GDP may be fully recovered to its pre-pandemic level by July or August of 2021. That outcome would be 6 to 9 months sooner than the FOMC’s projections and the consensus estimates. Could such a rapid recovery to real GDP, to the unemployment rate, and to inflation influence investor sentiment and positioning to further steepen the 2s-30s Treasury yield curve towards 191bps over the medium-term? Fiscal stimulus remains the wild card but you might be surprised to learn that likely offers upside to these forecasts!?
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, takes listeners through the details of his tracking estimate for 3Q-2020 GDP. He discusses his more medium-term outlook and the role fiscal stimulus plays. He also explores the implications of those forecasts on his investment thesis, the 2s30s yield curve steepener.
Optimism in the September BoJ Tankan survey, large buying of EUR-denominated bonds, and rotation into USD spread product: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
The improvement in the diffusion index and large manufacturers’ expectations contained in the September Tankan survey was welcome news. That, however, comes at a time when the coronavirus pandemic may be re-accelerating globally, not to mention amid the uncertainty of the U.S. election and additional fiscal stimulus. Recent data shows an evolution in Japanese investment into foreign bonds while global affluent fund flows keep key currencies and interest rates in a narrow range. Risk aversion could result in Yen-strengthening stresses if the uncertainty ahead of the U.S. election grows. Investors should be watchful of growing JPY strengthening pressures against other key currencies.
In this episode, MUFG’s Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, discusses Japanese companies’ views of the economy as memorialized in the September BoJ Tankan survey, cross-border flows, and his views for Dollar / Yen, Dollar / Yen cross-currency basis, and Yen rate.
Currencies run for cover: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast
Safe haven currencies – USD, JPY and CHF – have outperformed in recent weeks as markets become more cautious about the global economic outlook, particularly in light of the sharp surge of COVID-19 cases in Europe, and the lack of optimism for agreement on a fiscal stimulus package ahead of the US election.
The pound is also one of the better performing currencies, despite more Brexit chaos following failed talks on a UK/EU trade agreement at last week's EU summit. Why is this? Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG, explains on this week’s podcast.
Implications of air travel on oil demand: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Global air traffic is projected to decline by at least half in 2020 with most airlines predicting that business won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023, at the earliest.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, examines the how jet fuel demand is holding up and what this signals for global oil markets. Listen to Ehsan’s analysis.
Brace yourselves for another rapid decline in the unemployment rate: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Brace yourselves. MUFG's John Herrmann just revised down his already low (U3) unemployment rate forecast to plunge to 6.25% by year-end 2020 (currently, 7.9%) and to 4.0% by year-end 2021 (our previous forecast, 4.6%). That only increases the gap between MUFG, the consensus, and "official" estimates like the FOMC and the IMF. Our updated forecasts are at least 150 bps lower than either the consensus estimate or the FOMC’s projections – not to mention that our forecasts are lower (by at least 40 bps) than every other estimate in the entire Bloomberg survey! As we are well aware, now, John Herrmann's growth expectations are similarly more optimistic. How will the FOMC and the yield curve react if MUFG's forecasts play out? Over the coming six to twelve months, as market and FOMC participants recalibrate their own expectations for the U.S. economy, might Treasury markets undergo a “mini” taper tantrum by late spring or early summer 2021?
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, reviews his revised unemployment rate forecast as well as discusses GDP and inflation forecasts. He also explores the implications of those forecasts on his investment thesis, the 2s-30s yield curve steepener.
U.S. election enters the final stretch: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
With three weeks until Election Day on November 3, millions of Americans are already voting – in person and by mail. Polls show a sustained and recently growing lead by former Vice President Biden, but the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on how votes will be cast and counted remains unclear. A win by President Trump cannot be ruled out.
In this episode, Jordan Heiber, Deputy Representative in MUFG’s Washington DC Office, looks at the state of the race, the risk that we may not know the outcome on election night, and the policies and priorities that investors should expect from Washington in 2021.
Deal or no deal? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast
The prospect of economic growth in the UK is darkening, with figures showing a less than impressive level of growth for August. In this episode, Lee Hardman, currency analyst, outlines the rocky road ahead for the pound.
The markets are currently pricing in an optimistic scenario for Brexit negotiations ahead of the EU leaders' summit on Thursday, but will this positive momentum be dampened by the surge of COVID-19 cases in the UK?
Listen now for Lee’s forecasts for GBP and USD as Biden continues to take the lead in the election polls.
A November to remember: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
With starkly different policies on energy and environmental issues, the outcome of the upcoming US election will have a momentous impact on markets.
With less than a month to go, Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, offers insights into why either a Trump or Biden administration will mean those trading oil, both now and post-election, will require new ways to assess, quantify, and hedge risk. Listen to Ehsan’s analysis.
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Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
U.S. Rates Strategist
New York, NY
Chief Japan Strategist