In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.
Mid-summer stretch June Prepayment, U.S. Housing, Agency MBS Issuance, and the Mortgage Basis Outlook
In this episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz discusses recent prepayment data and shares his views on valuation across the agency MBS coupon stack. He also reviews the recent slowdown in the U.S. housing market and the outlook for the housing market against the backdrop of a higher 30-year mortgage rate. Finally, Glenn takes listeners through the outlook for agency MBS issuance for the second half of the year and the mortgage basis.
All about the elusive inflation peak
In today’s podcast, we mark-to-market the latest macro developments in the U.S. and recent price action, as well as briefly review some of the inflation concepts covered in our recent monthly strategy report. We also touch upon what to expect from markets post the June CPI report. In our view, if the inflation report does not show any signs of price increases slowing, then a high reading may trigger a more lasting risk-off as investors potentially throw in the towel on inflation moderating.
Implications of former Prime Minister Abe’s tragic assassination and Upper House election results
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses implications for financial markets from Upper House election results, the impact on the Bank of Japan’s yield control operations, and securities investing flows in May and June. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
BoJ versus bond market vigilantes…round two
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses his July outlook for JPY cross assets and Japanese investor behavior based on the June Tankan survey, and reviews BoJ and MoF money flow data for June. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
MUFG June FOMC Preview: Expect more hawkish signals as inflation risks linger
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses his FOMC preview for the upcoming June meeting. George expects more hawkish signals from the Fed as they continue their fight against persistently high inflation. This will likely come about with the first 75bp hike since the 1994 hiking cycle, as well as a meaningful jump higher in the rates dot plot. The risk of the Fed introducing a balance-sheet unwind facility to make the QT caps whole is also lurking in the wings. On the dovish side, it would be odd if the Fed does not do 75bps but that is a risk as is the risk they highlight recent market vol.
The Bank of Japan debates monetary policy as the Yen threatens to break 20 year lows
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews lifers’ FY21 earnings results and changes in their asset management portfolios, analyzes JPY cross asset developments in May, and previews the June BoJ meeting. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
New World Order
In today’s episode, Hailey Orr, MUFG Capital Markets Strategist, discusses her team’s most recent publication, New World Order, where they outline 15 defining themes for the global economy and markets in the second half of 2022. In the podcast, Hailey focuses specifically on the transition from “COVID” linked inflation to “conflict” linked inflation and the implications that has for markets driven by stagflation risk. Despite numerous challenges in the economy and markets today, silver linings can still be found.
May JPY cross asset review and June outlook, as well as a resurgent Samurai bond market
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses his outlook for Yen assets, analyzes BoJ operations and fiscal fund flows, and reviews the Samurai bond market. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
Macro Narratives in a State of Flux: From inflation to recession fears?
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves recaps his latest Macro2Markets Monthly report and goes over how macro narratives are evolving and how markets are adjusting to competing themes. George believes that rate risks are in the process of taking a back seat to coming credit concerns where the cross roads of high inflation and slowing growth may result in a challenging environment for Corporate America, especially firms dependent on low rates and fast economic activity. George views the rebound in risk assets as markets adjusting from oversold conditions, and that more downside risks remain for 2022.
March U.S. TIC and April JSDA JPY bond data show Japanese investor preference for non-U.S. bonds and JGBs
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews developments with cross-asset JPY asset positions, as displayed in the March USTIC and J-BoP, and April JSDA data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen Rate, and Yen basis.
For more information,
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
Chief Japan Strategist
Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy
The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.