In this weekly podcast series, John Herrmann, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, along with other subject matter experts within our business, discuss the forces, indicators, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and year ahead.
A jobs slowdown or just another Bureau of Labor Statistics mismeasurement?!: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Total U.S. nonfarm payrolls gained only +661.0K mom in September, weaker than John Herrmann's forecast and the consensus estimate. In contrast, private nonfarm payrolls gained +877.0K mom, stronger than his forecast and the consensus estimate. As John previewed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did, in fact, under-count total education staffing, especially at K-12 public schools.
The especially “poor” September Repose/Collection Rate (just 70.4%) points to risk of a +225.0K to +325.0K upward revision to the September total nonfarm payroll outcome over the coming two monthly reports. The October monthly report likely may see a large gain in education payrolls as well. Lastly, the September report saw yet another big move down in the unemployment rate – spot on to John’s forecast of 7.9%. This decline partially reflects some 772.8K individuals who incorrectly reported themselves as “employed, but absent from work (other reasons)” – which suggests that the U3 rate for the month of September really may be as high as 8.3%. How is an investor to interpret these mixed messages?!
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, reviews a mixed September employment report, including his forecasts for non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate versus the actual results. He also puts this in perspective versus the 38% rebound in growth he's expecting to occur in the 3rd quarter and discusses the steepening of the 2s-30s Treasury yield curve towards 191.1 bps target over the coming eighteen months.
What do samurai swords and prepayment speeds have in common?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
MUFG’s Glenn Schultz discusses MUFG’s proprietary machine learning prepayment model and walks listeners through the relevant issues that mortgage investors should be paying attention to while surveying the prepayment landscape.
In this episode, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Strategy and Prepayment Modeling, Glenn Schultz, breaks down the impact of technology, the new adverse delivery fee, hardship forbearance, and delinquency buyout extension on prepayment rates going forward. He also dives into MUFG’s rate forecast and what this means for the 30-year mortgage rate going into 2021.
Trump, COVID-19 and the markets: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast
U.S. politics is still front of mind following President Trump’s diagnosis of COVID-19 last week. This development sent shockwaves through the markets, and could have repercussions for the upcoming election.
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA, gives his analysis of the situation and considers whether Biden has an advantage going forwards.
Also this week, Derek looks at possible scenarios for the UK’s economic recovery based on past data from the 2008 financial crisis. Spoiler alert: it’s far from optimistic. Listen here.
Is Oman turning a corner? The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Notwithstanding the reality that Oman faces one of the largest fiscal shortfalls amongst the entire emerging market space this year, there are encouraging signs that the country is over the worst.
One of the most closely examined emerging market countries, Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, weighs in on Oman’s outlook as it navigates the oil-virus shocks and highlights key areas to monitor into 2021.
Another robust employment report? For how much longer?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
MUFG's John Herrmann is expecting yet another better than consensus gain in headline payrolls in the month of September. He's also expecting a larger than expected fall in the unemployment rate...sound familiar?! Undercounting of education workers represent down-side risk to his forecast, although this would likely be caught in subsequent monthly revisions. Lastly, with the flurry of announcements about pending corporate layoffs, for how much longer can this good news last? John outlines the path forward.
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, previews the September employment report, including his forecasts for non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. He also discusses, more generally, why he's more optimistic on employment and growth than the consensus, the Fed, and other official forecasts.
Backtesting exchange traded funds purchases under Abenomics for the benefit of “Suganomics”: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s administration is only weeks old, but it is already clear the new administration will continue Abenomics and push for the structural reforms that were never enacted. The Tokyo markets underwent structural changes during the nearly eight years of Abenomics, and overseas investors have been making more JPY cross-currency arbitrage trades while Japanese companies and investors have been acquiring more overseas assets. What is in store for Tokyo markets under “Suganomics”? More locally, stock prices have dropped, and the JPY has strengthened recently as the coronavirus pandemic has flared up again in Europe. Speculation has been simmering in the market that Prime Minister Suga will dissolve the Lower House and hold a general election. What is in store for USDJPY, JPY rate, and USDJPY cross-currency basis?
In this episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, tests market reaction to the Bank of Japan’s exchange traded funds purchases during Abenomics and takes a look at USDJPY, JPY rates, and JPY basis as “Suganomics” enjoys its honeymoon period.
Global markets poised for Trump vs Biden: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast
Tomorrow is the first live debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden and marks five weeks until the U.S. election. History indicates television debates don’t have an integral influence on election results, but Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA, gives his FX forecast for the week as he explains why if there was ever a year to buck this trend, this could be it.
With the markets pricing in the prospect for an unresolved election and a contested outcome, and not to mention the rocky road ahead for GBP as it grapples with ongoing UK-EU trade negotiations, the MUFG market research team share their trade ideas for what is set to be a volatile few months in the markets.
What Libya’s oil deal signals for global oil markets: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Libya’s oil industry, all but shut down since January due to the civil conflict, is reopening – in parts. This re-entry of Libyan crude is theoretically a new bearish dynamic for global oil markets.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, examines the sustainability, magnitude and timeline of the prospect of higher supply from Libya into global oil markets and what this could signal for oil prices.
Is the Phillips curve dead in the Fed’s new monetary policy framework?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Over the past four weeks, the FOMC continues to deliver what appears to be a forceful, seminal shift in their monetary policy framework. The Committee has strengthened its maximum employment mandate, elevating its stature to be a vibrant, durable, broad-based, and inclusive one. 12 years of erroneous predictions has inclined the pragmatic Chair Powell to dispose of many of the features of the Phillips curve thinking within the Fed’s inflation models and to relegate it’s importance upon the indicator dashboard. This shifting of emphasis within the new framework likely may lead the U3 unemployment rate to decline all the way to 2.604% by year-end 2024 (a 100-year low!) – according to our models forecasts. Still, there remain many unanswered questions, but a deeper understanding of the new framework is a must for any investor.
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, continues to try to enhance listeners’ understanding of the Fed's new framework.
Markets brace for mix of cross-currents: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast
A mix of cross-currents are threatening to turn the tide for the FX markets. COVID-19 is back in focus in the UK, with the growing likelihood of new lockdowns sending the pound into underperformance.
The threat of negative interest rates is also looming, and Derek Halpenny, Head of Global Markets Research for EMEA, gives his forecast for when these could be potentially implemented. Stateside, the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has opened a seat on the Supreme Court, giving way to an escalation in partisan politics. What does this mean for the dollar? Listen below for more.
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Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
U.S. Rates Strategist
New York, NY
Chief Japan Strategist