In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.
Japanese investors reshuffle U.S. bond and Japanese stock positions with implications for Yen basis arbitrage
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects U.S. bond investing flows based on the February USTIC data and discusses the attributes of Japan stock investing flows as reflected by JPX data and what to expect from the Kishida administration. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
What does Japanese and foreign investor selling of overseas investments in March mean for April?
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects March securities investing flows, the balance between the MoF’s FY22 JGB issuance plans and the BoJ’s JGB buying plans, and the BoJ’s yield control tools. He also shares his views across Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis markets.
The End of the Post Cold War Era
In today’s episode, Hailey Orr, MUFG Capital Markets Strategist, discusses her team’s new publication and implications for the global economy and markets.
Japan’s new year starting with more Fed fireworks?
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves shares some of his observations from public data (such as TIC and MOF data) on how investment flows historically have looked in and out of Japan for U.S. assets at the start of their fiscal new year (which just started in April). George also commented on recent Fed speeches that are mentioning that the Fed’s balance-sheet is poised to shrink much more quickly this time around, all of this happening ahead of the March FOMC minutes release. George ties all these developments to his macro views.
JPY Cross asset review for the month of March plus triggers for the month of April
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews JPY asset pricing and flows in March, looks ahead to April JPY triggers, and discusses the key points of the March Tankan survey. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
Macro scenarios update and curve reviews post Fed’s first hike
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves reviews his recently published macro thematic report on our latest views for the U.S. outlook in the next 18 months as well as a review of markets in and out of the first hike in this cycle. George feels that the rates market is operating to a “back to the future” tightening cycle that has fast-forwarded all the Fed hikes into and out of the Fed’s first move. This has led to a cascading of curve flattening (with a number of curve spreads going inverted in the process) as the market is skeptical the Fed will get far.
How many unlimited fixed-rate JGB buying operations will it take for the BoJ to keep JGB yields ”around zero percent”?
In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the BoJ's fixed rate JGB buying operations and JPY cross-asset flows in February. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
A defining moment for the U.S. bond market
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves summarizes the current rates and curve dynamics post the first Fed hike of this cycle. George is pretty emphatic that the U.S. bond market needs to hold the line—which is short for saying that we are in the intersection of some key technical metrics and market structure factors—and that this perhaps is the most important time in the bond market’s history to date.
TicBop, the BoJ & USDJPY
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido deliberates the attributes of U.S. bond flows among Japanese and Asian investors more broadly, as well as the BoJ’s March meeting and policy outlook. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
March FOMC Preview: Lift-off in a period of uncertainty
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses the intra-meeting price action between the last FOMC through today and spells out what to watch for in the Fed’s updates for the economic outlook and rate path ahead (i.e. the dot plot). George expects the Fed to try to thread the needle as a lot of hikes are already priced-in.
For more information,
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
Chief Japan Strategist
Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy
The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.