In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.
“Further effective and sustainable monetary easing” and you
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the key changes to monetary policy based on the BoJ’s assessment of monetary easing, as well as potential triggers for Yen rate cross-currency basis. He also shares his outlooks for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
Following Chair Powell’s forward guidance may leave you holding the bag on big-time bond valuation losses?
Chair Powell has pledged that monetary policy is no longer to be conducted upon a forward looking basis – a reaction function that explicitly acknowledges the long and variable lead times between policy changes and economic activity. Rather, Chair Powell doubled down upon his claim that the Fed’s policy reaction function will be based upon realized outcomes to economic improvement over the current cycle. In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist John Herrmann argues to continue to take the opposite side of Chair Powell’s remarkably complacent view.
BoJ policy assessment is likely more evolution than revolution
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido offers his outlook for the BoJ’s March board meeting and reviews JPY flow of funds and cross-border securities investing. He also shares his outlooks for Dollar/Yen, Yen basis, and Yen rate.
Fence sitters and buyouts in low delinquency pools: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast Fence sitters and buyouts in low delinquency pools: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
In today’s podcast, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Strategy and Prepayment Modeling, Glenn Schultz, touches on the ideas of the “fence sitter” and how this impacts mortgage prepayment rates, why we are seeing buyouts in low delinquency pools, and the increase in 120+ past due stratifications.
Kuroda support for the JGB market comes too late for foreign investors who sold in February: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, breaks down recent price action in Tokyo and discusses Japanese and overseas investor cross-border flows. He also shares his outlooks for Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis ahead of the BoJ’s monetary policy review.
The February Jobs Report – An initial step before a very big upswing in jobs growth? The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
With such a favorable economic backdrop and with risk of an FOMC taper announcement in 2H-2021, John’s models continue to predict a further steepening of the 2s-10s and 2s-30 Treasury yield curve over the medium-term.
Japanese investors sell foreign bonds in reaction to carnage in global bond markets, but leave footprints of buying more recently
In February, JPY rates rose, and USDJPY rose as U.S. rates moved higher. Even the day after the benchmark U.S. Treasury yield touched 1.6% late in February, the BoJ did not indicate it would implement operations to stall a JPY yield rise, allowing upward pressure on U.S. rates to spread to JPY rates. Then, before the BoJ needed to act, Japanese investors stepped in to stem the sell-off.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, breaks down recent price action in the Tokyo market as well as discusses BoJ JGB buying operations, the MoF JGB auctions, and previews the upcoming BoJ monetary policy review. He also shares his outlook for Dollar/Yen, Yen basis, and Yen rate.
Global currencies feeling the pressure: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast
The New Zealand Dollar is continuing to underperform following a dovish update from the RBNZ; with negative rates still on the cards for New Zealand next year, Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, gives us his outlook.
Lee also takes a look at the Turkish Lira, which is seeing continued downward pressure, with USD/TRY trading close to record highs. Will Turkey’s central bank be decisive enough this week to help stabilise the Lira? Listen now for more.
Why are we even mentioning the word “taper” and should employment in 2021 be nearly as weak as in January?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
In this week’s podcast, U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, does a deep dive into both the establishment survey and the household survey. He finds a few distortions in the technical aspects of the payroll report that may turn around quickly to support payroll computations over the months of February through June 2021. For the unemployment rate, John’s work continues to uncover the roles played by two significant forces that act to depress the reported U3 unemployment rate (by a few hundred basis points).
All combined, John remains confident that his year-end forecast for the U3 unemployment rate likely may be attained – that of 4.042% – which is far lower than the FOMC’s projection (5.00%), lower than the consensus estimate (5.50%), and lower than even the lowest estimate in the Bloomberg survey (4.10%). In John’s view, markets “taper chatter” likely will become quite loud as the year progresses.
Terminal Velocity: January 2021 Prepayment Speeds
In today’s podcast, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Strategy and Prepayment Modeling, Glenn Schultz, discusses the January 2021 prepayment speeds and explores if speeds are slowing down and if we are seeing burnout in the premium sector.
For more information,
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
Chief Japan Strategist
Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy
The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.