In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.
Bearish exhaustion driving risk markets too far?
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses how the developments in the bond markets have been more logical lately, especially around key macro events. Whereas risk assets, like the performance of equities, have been more perplexing. George attributes the multiple bounces higher for stocks over the last month as a function of “bearish exhaustion” as investors try to determine if a solid bottom has been put in for 2022. George believes that broader markets are perhaps confusing a potential Fed pause as a pivot, and even then it’s still too early for the Fed to be signaling a transition in policy given how high inflation remains.
Foreigners challenge BoJ yield curve control once again but Japanese investors have the BoJ’s back
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido updates us on the cross asset flows during the month of September and also previews the October BoJ policy meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
The Second Golden Age of Mortgage Backed Securities
In this episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz discusses the October remittance data and outlines our thesis of the ‘Second Golden Age of Mortgage Backed Securities.’ He reviews how the evolution of the coupon stack, borrower and loan characteristic diversity, and the normalization of interest rates converge to bring about the dawn of a second golden age for mortgages.
Structural changes in GBP, bond market stresses, and Japanese securities investing flows
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews cross-border securities flows during the volatile price action that occurred during the months of August and September, as well as additional insights from the quarterly Tankan survey. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
CPI Shocktober to drive markets to new local price lows?
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves marks to market what he believes was another head-fake move at the start of Q4 trading. The roundtrip price action that we have seen in the last week or so of trading in both bonds and stocks – which saw massive rallies unwind into this new trading week – reminds us that many investors are still enamored with the buy-the-dip approach versus selling-the-rips stance that we have been advocating for a while, which are more common trading strategies in bear markets. We go into what to expect from the FOMC minutes and the upcoming inflation reports.
Casualties of Tightening (The Historic Rise in Global Central Bank Policy Rates)
In today’s episode, Hailey Orr, MUFG Capital Markets Strategist, discusses her team’s most recent publication: Casualties of Tightening (The Historic Rise in Global Central Bank Policy Rates). Hailey speaks to the idea of “synchronicity”, where she takes us through the remarkable YTD sell-off of nearly every risk asset on the planet. She also goes over how the current global policy tightening cycle differs from past cycles and which areas in the market are bearing the brunt, and expectations for the Fed tightening cycle going forward.
Fed Pivot Dreams Strike Again
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides us with an update on how markets got back to dreaming of Fed pivots again after such a terrible performance in September. He also walks us through some of his main themes in the latest Macro2Markets Monthly called: A sea of doom (loops) as FCI tightens further. George remains skeptical of what could be another bear market rally in the making and attributes the recent price action to positioning and sentiment having gotten too bearish-leaning. That said, George does not believe there is an imminent Fed reversal and that the Fed needs financial conditions to tighten even further in order to clamp down on aggregate demand and contain inflation into the new year. It’s also interesting to hear how George defined the criteria for what he dubs the end of the bond bull run, but that said, it doesn’t mean the start of the bear market in bonds is ahead either.
What do the September BoJ meeting and Tankan survey tell us about the outlook for Yen assets across markets?
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the September BoJ meeting, Tankan survey, and his outlook for Yen assets across markets for the month of October. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
September FOMC Preview: Hawkish mood continues even if the Fed meets market expectation
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on his latest views post the recent volatility in markets. George believes the gap between rate expectations and risk assets are closing. Post the hotter than expected CPI print, the Fed is not going to pivot any time soon as many initially were hoping. George provides his base case for the September FOMC with expectations of another 75bp hike higher in rates, the third in a row, along with higher dots, too. George expects Chair Powell to deliver a message that is consistent with his speech from Jackson Hole, which was hawkish.
Bank of Japan to leave ultra-loose monetary policy in place as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy aggressively
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the impact of Yen money supply/demand as well as inflationary pressures ahead of the BoJ’s meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis
For more information,
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
Chief Japan Strategist
Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy
The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.