In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.
A defining moment for the U.S. bond market
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves summarizes the current rates and curve dynamics post the first Fed hike of this cycle. George is pretty emphatic that the U.S. bond market needs to hold the line—which is short for saying that we are in the intersection of some key technical metrics and market structure factors—and that this perhaps is the most important time in the bond market’s history to date.
TicBop, the BoJ & USDJPY
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido deliberates the attributes of U.S. bond flows among Japanese and Asian investors more broadly, as well as the BoJ’s March meeting and policy outlook. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
March FOMC Preview: Lift-off in a period of uncertainty
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses the intra-meeting price action between the last FOMC through today and spells out what to watch for in the Fed’s updates for the economic outlook and rate path ahead (i.e. the dot plot). George expects the Fed to try to thread the needle as a lot of hikes are already priced-in.
March BoJ Preview: The Ukraine crisis’ impact on Japan’s bank sector and global inflationary pressures
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido previews the Bank of Japan’s March Monetary Policy Board meeting. He also discusses the impact of the war in Ukraine on Japan’s bank sector and domestic inflationary pressures as shown in corporate prices as well as shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
What does royalty have to do with MBS prepayment?
In this episode MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz discusses the transition of the mortgage prepayment landscape to one dominated by turnover and burnout rather than refinancing. He discusses why he believes that turnover will become the dominant theme in 2022. He takes a balanced look at the specified pool sector, identifying the ‘Kings of extension protection” and “Princes of call protection.” Finally, he discusses his views on the recent widening trend in the current coupon basis.
What do fiscal fund and securities flows during the month of February mean for investors looking to navigate Japanese markets in March?
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido shares his outlook for JPY cross assets in March and also looks back at fiscal and BoJ monetary operations, as well as securities investing flows in February. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
Bond market reactions to geopolitical risks
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses the recently produced report on geopolitical analysis and historical experience of markets and the Fed during prior events. George emphasizes that it’s early days to draw any strong conclusions, but he is comfortable with his views that it all comes down to how financial conditions evolve ahead.
The invasion of Ukraine’s implications for JPY-denominated assets
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects market uncertainties caused by the Ukraine invasion and discusses JPY cross-asset pricing and JPY cross-asset flow from the January JSDA data. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
Broader U.S. fixed income still in the cross hairs
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses the implications of the break above 2% on the 10-year Treasury and how sustainable is the move in the near-term versus longer-run for the U.S. markets and the economy. He also discusses how U.S. credit is in the cross hairs of higher rates and risk market volatility.
Nuances of BoJ fixed rate buying operations and cross-border securities flows
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the nuances of the BoJ’s fixed rate buying operation as well as the attributes of securities investing flows from last week’s Balance of Payment data. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
For more information,
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
Chief Japan Strategist
Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy
The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.