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In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.

Implications of former Prime Minister Abe’s tragic assassination and Upper House election results

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses implications for financial markets from Upper House election results, the impact on the Bank of Japan’s yield control operations, and securities investing flows in May and June. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

BoJ versus bond market vigilantes…round two

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses his July outlook for JPY cross assets and Japanese investor behavior based on the June Tankan survey, and reviews BoJ and MoF money flow data for June. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

MUFG June FOMC Preview: Expect more hawkish signals as inflation risks linger

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses his FOMC preview for the upcoming June meeting. George expects more hawkish signals from the Fed as they continue their fight against persistently high inflation. This will likely come about with the first 75bp hike since the 1994 hiking cycle, as well as a meaningful jump higher in the rates dot plot. The risk of the Fed introducing a balance-sheet unwind facility to make the QT caps whole is also lurking in the wings. On the dovish side, it would be odd if the Fed does not do 75bps but that is a risk as is the risk they highlight recent market vol.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

The Bank of Japan debates monetary policy as the Yen threatens to break 20 year lows

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews lifers’ FY21 earnings results and changes in their asset management portfolios, analyzes JPY cross asset developments in May, and previews the June BoJ meeting. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

New World Order

In today’s episode, Hailey Orr, MUFG Capital Markets Strategist, discusses her team’s most recent publication, New World Order, where they outline 15 defining themes for the global economy and markets in the second half of 2022. In the podcast, Hailey focuses specifically on the transition from “COVID” linked inflation to “conflict” linked inflation and the implications that has for markets driven by stagflation risk. Despite numerous challenges in the economy and markets today, silver linings can still be found.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

May JPY cross asset review and June outlook, as well as a resurgent Samurai bond market

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses his outlook for Yen assets, analyzes BoJ operations and fiscal fund flows, and reviews the Samurai bond market. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Macro Narratives in a State of Flux: From inflation to recession fears?

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves recaps his latest Macro2Markets Monthly report and goes over how macro narratives are evolving and how markets are adjusting to competing themes. George believes that rate risks are in the process of taking a back seat to coming credit concerns where the cross roads of high inflation and slowing growth may result in a challenging environment for Corporate America, especially firms dependent on low rates and fast economic activity. George views the rebound in risk assets as markets adjusting from oversold conditions, and that more downside risks remain for 2022.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

March U.S. TIC and April JSDA JPY bond data show Japanese investor preference for non-U.S. bonds and JGBs

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews developments with cross-asset JPY asset positions, as displayed in the March USTIC and J-BoP, and April JSDA data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen Rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Insights from cross-border flows and Japanese lifer fiscal year 2022 investment plans

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews April securities investing flows and Japanese lifers’ investment strategies for the first half of fiscal year 2022. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen cross-currency basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Issuance, and Spreads, and the Fed, oh my…

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz reviews April’s prepayment data, issuance trends in the agency MBS market, and the Federal Reserve’s MBS portfolio run-off. He discusses how the confluence of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, balance sheet run-off, and issuance and prepayment trends inform MUFG’s ‘old normal’ thesis for the agency MBS valuations and the current coupon spread.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Learn more

For more information,
contact us.

John Cooke
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
1-212-405-7353
John.Cooke@mufgsecurities.com

George Goncalves
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
1-212-405-6687
George.Goncalves@mufgsecurities.com

Takahiro Sekido
Chief Japan Strategist
Tokyo, Japan
1-81-3-6214-4150
Takahiro_Sekido@mufg.jp

Glenn Schultz
Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy
Chicago, IL
1-212-405-6521
Glenn.Schultz@mufgsecurities.com

The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.