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In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.

A regime change in the Agency MBS prepayment landscape and the implications for Agency MBS investors

In today’s episode, Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, discusses the regime change he has witnessed in Agency MBS prepayment during the most recent refinance wave and its implications for investors. Glenn discusses its impact on option adjusted spreads, MBS option costs, and nominal spreads, as well as the risk to his 2022 issuance outlook as a result of a higher 30-year mortgage rate.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

A make or break moment for U.S. rates?

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on what has been driving the U.S. bond market post the FOMC meeting. The hawkish pivot has gone global post the recent ECB shift and BoE hawkishness. This has resulted in a multi-sigma move in Euro rates, which are impacting U.S. rates. George takes us through a few scenarios around the Treasury auctions and the upcoming CPI report.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

BoJ monetary and MoF fiscal operations put pressure on JGBs and JPY basis into fiscal year end

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the recent sell-off in the JGB market including the impact of monetary and fiscal operations. He also shares his outlook for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Tokyo Cross-Currency Repo Market Structure and nuances to BoJ Monetary Policy

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the attributes of cross-currency JPY repo trading in Tokyo and discusses BoJ Monetary Policy. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

2022 Global Markets & Economic Outlook: Transitioning Corporate Strategy for a Post-Pandemic World

The MUFG Capital Markets Strategy Group recently published their 2022 Global Markets & Economic Outlook: Transitioning Corporate Strategy for the Post-Pandemic World. In today’s episode, Hailey Orr, MUFG Capital Markets Strategist, discusses key themes from the report including the regime change underway in the economy and markets and the remarkable level of corporate activity taking place as company strategy pivots to investing for a post-pandemic world.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Exploring FCI and real rates plus a quick January FOMC preview

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on current market volatility and concerns over broad financial conditions tightening. George takes us through the view that the movement in real rates hold the key to what happens next for financial conditions and thus markets. And lastly, George gives us a quick rundown on what to expect at the upcoming January FOMC meeting.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Japanese and foreign bond flows at the close of 2021

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects investor activity across JGBs, Nikkei stocks, and foreign bonds in December, as well as additional insights from the November U.S. TIC data. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

High Yield Credit: Best house in a tight neighborhood: Part 3 of 3 Macro2Markets 2022 Outlook

In Part 3 and the final in our podcast series for the Macro2Markets 2022 Outlook, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, interviews Bill Matthews, MUFG High Yield Credit Analyst, on his outlook for the HY Credit market in 2022. George and Bill discuss the Fed-induced financial conditions tightening among other things, where the High Yield market is not immune to any meaningful repricing of risk assets, but its lower duration footprint and strong credit fundamentals is leading it to trade, for now, towards the bottom of our forecast spread range.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Investment Grade Credit: A year of sector and credit picking ahead: Part 2 of 3 Macro2Markets 2022 Outlook

In Part 2 of the Macro2Markets 2022 Outlook, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, interviews Eric Ruff, Investment Grade Credit Analyst, on his outlook for the IG Credit market in 2022. George and Eric discuss the overall credit spread outlook of the IG Index for the year, their views on focus sectors, and the resilience of the IG market in light of the risks of tighter Fed policy and financial conditions, which may lead to potential volatility ahead.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Agency MBS: Orderly normalization supported by strong fundamentals – Part 1 of 3 Macro2Markets 2022 Outlook

In Part 1 of the Macro2Markets 2022 Outlook, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, interviews Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy on his 2022 outlook. George and Glenn discuss the issuance outlook and dynamics of the agency MBS market, and the outlook for the overall U.S. residential housing market against the backdrop of Federal Reserve tightening and QE tapering.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Learn more

For more information,
contact us.

John Cooke
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
1-212-405-7353
John.Cooke@mufgsecurities.com

George Goncalves
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
1-212-405-6687
George.Goncalves@mufgsecurities.com

Takahiro Sekido
Chief Japan Strategist
Tokyo, Japan
1-81-3-6214-4150
Takahiro_Sekido@mufg.jp

Glenn Schultz
Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy
Chicago, IL
1-212-405-6521
Glenn.Schultz@mufgsecurities.com

The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.