In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.
A reduction in BoJ JGB purchases proves no match to an expanding monetary base and fiscal spending
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects Japan’s April monetary base and fiscal balance, as well as discusses May fiscal fund flows. He also shows his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
Could a small step toward post-pandemic policy normalization and tweaks to the structure of U.S. money markets start to normalize cross-currency basis?
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews the Bank of Japan’s April policy meeting, discusses adjustments to the coordinated global central bank effort to supply U.S. Dollar funds, and takes listeners through relative value in cross-border security investments. He also shares his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
Japanese life insurance company investment strategies for fiscal year 2021
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses key points with Japanese lifers’ 1H FY21 investment strategies including the impact on individual USD, EUR, and JPY asset classes as well as discusses dynamics in the JPY Samurai bond market and key points for the near term. He also outlines his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
Prime Minister Suga’s first visit to U.S. suggests cross-border interdependency is increasingly key for Japanese markets
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the outlook for Japanese corporate foreign direct investment, February U.S. TIC data, and cross-border securities investing flows in the Tokyo markets so far in April. He also shares his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
When will the FOMC “catch up” to the strength in the CPI inflation, retail sales, housing, and production data?
In today’s podcast, U.S. Rates Strategist John reviews the CPI report and previews the retail sales report. His models forecast a remarkable surge in retail spending over the coming months of March, April, May and into June. In turn, John’s GDP growth rate forecast remains the highest of all professional forecasters in the Bloomberg survey, at +9.03% yoy in 2021, and his growth forecast remains near 260 bps stronger than the FOMC’s projection.
Is this the end of the refinance wave?
In this episode, Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, discusses whether or not the March remit data is a sign of the end of the refinance wave. He also discusses the implications of the CFPB’s extension on borrower forbearance and how this will impact home prices.
Cross-border flows in the beginning of a new fiscal year
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses Yen monetary base, possible triggers for the Yen rates market, cross-border security investment flows in February and March, and the JPY basis response. He also shares his views for Dollar/Yen, Yen basis, and Yen rate.
Does a robust recovery in the labor market suggest the Fed is already behind the curve?
In the latest podcast, U.S. Rates Strategist John Herrmann reviews the most recent monthly employment report, both in terms of the remarkably strong and broad-based growth in nonfarm payrolls, alongside an extremely rapid descent in the number of U3 unemployed individuals.
BoJ’s Tankan survey, JGB buying plan, and MoF’s fiscal fund projections for volatile JPY moves in FY21: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses Japan’s economy and Japanese corporate investing and export assumption exchange rates based on the Tankan survey, as well as the BoJ’s JGB buying plans and the MoF’s stance toward fund supply and demand and TDB issuances in April. He also shares his outlooks for Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
Has the U.S. economy just entered a twelve-week window of explosive growth?
In this episode, U.S. Rates Strategist John Herrmann peers into the machinations of the March employment report and his models find numerous indications of a rapid acceleration in employment growth, not just for the month of March, but also for the months of April through October 2021. The household survey—as a mirror image to employment dynamics—may exhibit a very rapid and significant decline in the U3 unemployment rate over the coming ten-months, towards a 2021 year-end rate of 3.91% John discusses the implications of the data for a 2s-30s Treasury yield curve steepener and a more nuanced 5s-30s Treasury yield curve flattener investment stances.
For more information,
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
Chief Japan Strategist
Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy
The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.