Global Markets Podcasts

With the debt ceiling resolution behind us, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, returns to recap what feels like a market that is in a holding pattern until the passage of the CPI print and the FOMC meeting. He also discusses the medium-term risks with a keen focus on liquidity dynamics. The Treasury will be replenishing its General Account (TGA), which sits on the Fed's liability side of the balance-sheet via raising cash from T-bill issuance. At a minimum, this will likely result in a crowding out effect and at a maximum level, drain market liquidity. Given some areas of the banking system remain fragile and in need of funding, it’s critical to watch how this plays out over the summer. With QT ongoing and the Fed aiming to keep rates higher for longer, this liquidity story can supercharge the Fed’s tightening efforts ahead.

In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews asset price developments during May and looks ahead to June based upon BoJ monetary policy and fiscal and monetary fund flows. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, returns to give us an update on the current status of the debt ceiling negotiations. He explores scenarios of how this impasse may conclude and potential market implications. George also takes us through his latest Fed thinking, taking into account all of the recent Fed speakers. He also provides us with a mini-preview of what to expect at the June FOMC meeting. George looks further down the road on how the Fed may shift towards easing and what to do with QT and the supersized RRP. Lastly, if that was not enough to get one’s arms around, George provides a list of what else is on his risk radar.

In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido gives his view on triggers in the wake of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima as well as his analysis of the latest April JSDA data. He also shares his outlook for spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses recent political developments, cross border flows, and implications for financial markets. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, Glenn Schultz, reviews April remittance data highlighting the ‘Kings of Carry’ and relative value around the convexity cross, and the outlook for the agency mortgage basis given the FDIC liquidations current U.S. budget negotiation. He also discusses the possible implications of the debt ceiling brinksmanship on both the GNMA and Conventional MBS sectors.

In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews the JSDA data for March, as well as April fiscal and BoJ fund flows and implications. He also shares his views on spot USDJPY, Yen rates, and Yen basis.

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, thinks that given the macro to markets setup, the Fed shouldn’t be hiking at this point, but they likely will, so long as the rates market is pricing in over a 75% chance of rate hike come the time of the May FOMC rate decision meeting conclusion. Thus, the Fed is on track to deliver another 25bp hike and take up the range for the Fed Funds target rate to 5-5.25%. That said, he also believes that this could ultimately be the last hike of what was one of the most aggressive Fed hiking cycles in recent history. 

The continued slide lower in U.S. economic activity with ongoing improvements in inflation measures, coupled with renewed banking turmoil and a more pressing U.S. debt ceiling impasse ahead warrants a pause, but again the Fed will likely hike at the May meeting. Therefore, Chair Powell will try to convey a neutral message and not sound overly hawkish or dovish at this juncture. We expect the presser to be dominated by regional bank concerns, especially after witnessing another bank failure this year (and the third such bank failure happened days before the FOMC decision).

Overall, the Fed’s rate path from here is fraught with many challenges. For example, until financial conditions worsen (which we believe they will into the 2nd half of 2023) and/or if there were to be a cascading of bank related trouble in the near future, unless things are glaringly and perpetually bad, the Fed will try to look past the recent bank failures. Reason being is that they want to push back on the market pricing of rate cuts and hold the line – conveying that they are planning to hold rates “higher for longer” to ensure all these rate hikes are working at wrestling inflation closer to their 2% target. The tricky part will be that holding rates at these even higher rates levels will likely expose further weakness in the banking system and potentially the private credit sector as well.

Net, we won’t know for sure if this is the last rate hike – that will hinge on their assessment that enough has been done. The markets still have to contend with NFP and CPI ahead (which depending on the messaging from the Fed and the outcome of this upcoming data batch, could re-introduce some rate hike pricing into June). However, in our view the outlook will likely worsen from here and uncertainty may go up a lot if the debt ceiling process is taken down to the wire. If so, the key thing to watch post FOMC will be how Fed speakers react to the data and debt ceiling developments.  
 

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews the April Bank of Japan meeting, discusses Japanese life insurance company investment plans and shares potential triggers for Japanese markets in May. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the Lower House elections and shares his outlook for the Bank of Japan meeting this week. He also shares his views on spot Dollar / Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.